Chapter 57
Situation Room
The White House
Washington, D.C.
“We can’t get live coverage of this site anytime soon,” Mary Pat said, reading a message from the NRO.
“They’re going over archived footage and everything Klaus is telling us about this airfield at Al-Jaghbub checks out.
There have been major improvements in recent months, and it appears to be operational.
We have two captures of a transport on the ground, presumably one of these TransAvia flights. ”
“That’s all good and fine,” said the SecDef. “But we have no way of knowing exactly what was delivered to that hangar.”
“And more importantly,” Mary Pat added, “what’s being done inside right now.”
Ryan said, “We have to assume Klaus is right. Malenkov, or whoever’s behind this, is going to launch a strike before daybreak.”
Admiral Kent said, “These drones, as Klaus described them, are designed for spraying. We can’t completely discount a biological attack. That said, given the delivery of hardware for handling nuclear material—it seems almost certain we’re looking at a radiological attack.”
“With the aim of driving up the price of crude oil,” seconded Mary Pat.
“Area denial?” Ryan conjectured.
Heads around the room nodded.
The concept of drones delivering autonomous attacks was nothing new, a point driven home with an exclamation point when Ukraine had used swarms of them launched from trucks to decimate Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.
Ryan had personally ordered a review of potential vulnerabilities to such a strike—the kind of predictive threat analysis referred to in the intel community as a “left of bang” assessment.
Large-scale radiological attacks had made that list, but they’d filtered to the bottom, the logistics of such an attack seeming too complex to coordinate.
Now it was happening, and the repercussions could be immense.
Dispersing a radioactive isotope from the air could render a targeted area untouchable for years, even decades.
“Oil fields?” Arnie van Damm speculated.
“That’s the simple answer,” Burgess replied. “The Middle East would have a vast number of potential targets.”
“It can’t be just oil fields,” Ryan argued.
“Ten drones can’t cover a huge area and shutting down a few square miles of oil wells wouldn’t precipitate a crisis.
” He studied the map, and added, “Let’s focus on these drones.
How far can they go? If we draw a max-range circle around this airfield the target might become obvious. ”
“On it,” said Kent.
A map of the region was displayed on the central monitor. As Ryan studied it, he wondered aloud. “How did we miss this?”
The SecDef, who was clearly having the same misgivings, said, “The war in Libya has gone cold. It’s a part of the world we haven’t been watching closely.
NRO confirmed that we won’t have any scheduled satellite coverage until tomorrow morning.
The nearest available Predator would take six hours to get on station. ”
“Too long,” Ryan said.
“I agree,” seconded Mary Pat.
The President looked directly at the SecDef. “Find out what Navy assets we have in the area.”
“Will do.”
After a lengthy silence, Mary Pat said, “What about Clark?”
Ryan looked at her questioningly. “Clark?”
“He’s already flying, maybe a couple of hours away. He knows the situation better than anyone.”
“What are you suggesting? That we have his Gulfstream do an overflight…like reconnaissance?”
“That’s one option,” Mary Pat replied. “But our target is an airfield.”
“You’re saying we send him there to intervene?” Burgess inquired. “Klaus told us there are dozens of mercs working security at this compound. He’d be flying into a hornet’s nest. Maybe a radioactive one at that.”
“I’m saying he’s our nearest asset. At the very least, he should go have a look.
Clark can evaluate the situation from the air.
Maybe we’ll come up with a better option in the meantime, but right now Task Force 99 is our quickest way to get eyes on target.
If they overfly this airfield, it could also send a message.
It would put Malenkov on notice that his operation has been compromised. ”
Van Damm added, “If it delayed the launch of these drones even an hour or two, that would buy us time to come up with better options.”
Ryan weighed the idea. “Okay, it’s worth a shot.
I’m not sure what the endgame is, but we need to leverage every available asset.
” He addressed Mary Pat. “Get in touch with Clark. Assuming their jet has enough gas to do it, have them fly toward this airfield. We’ll get back to them later with specifics. ”
She reached for a phone.
SecDef Burgess ended his call with the Pentagon. “We have one carrier strike group in the Med,” he announced. “The Ford is west of Sardinia, roughly nine hundred miles from this airfield.”
“Is that too far to launch a strike?” van Damm asked.
“No, it could be done with external fuel tanks. But to get jets configured, launched, and then fly that distance—we’re talking at least three hours. Four or five is more realistic. I’m not sure if we have that much time.”
“What about Tomahawks?” Kent asked. “Wouldn’t they be quicker?”
“Hang on!” Ryan intervened. “Do we really want to hit this airfield? If there is radiological material on-site, a strike with air-to-ground munitions, even small smart bombs, could release a radioactive cloud. Double that for a cruise missile strike. There’s a village nearby that’s got to be full of civilians.
” No one countered the President’s logic as he cuffed a hand to his chin.
“All right, the choices we’re coming up with all have drawbacks.
But sometimes there’s no easy solution. Let’s instruct Ford to prep a strike package for launch.
Load up and stand by. And have her make best speed toward the area while we decide how to tackle this. ”
“Yes, sir,” the SecDef replied.
Admiral Kent ended his call. “I’ve got that range circle for a Shahed-151 drone.
This assumes a one-way flight with a partial fuel load to account for a big payload.
” He typed on a keyboard and a green circle was scribed on the map, centered around Al-Jaghbub Airfield.
It touched Tripoli to the west, Greece to the north, and the Sinai to the east.
“Not a lot of oil fields in that ring,” Kent said.
“Libya has recovered some production since the civil war quieted, but in the greater market it’s only a minor player.
Egypt pumps even less. And in either case, it doesn’t matter what these ten drones are carrying—they couldn’t shut down a large enough area to make a dent. ”
“It’s not an oil field,” Mary Pat said.
“No, it’s not,” Ryan agreed, seeing it at the same time. “The target is a choke point.”
He stood abruptly and tapped a finger on the waterway that formed the western edge of the Sinai Peninsula.
“The Suez Canal,” said van Damm.
“Last estimate I saw,” said Mary Pat, “roughly ten percent of seaborne oil and LNG pass through the canal. Most of it goes to Europe. A sudden, long-term shutdown? It’d be the market equivalent of throwing a flare into a fireworks factory.
You’d only have to contaminate a few square miles—and it molds perfectly with Malenkov’s investment scheme. ”
It was a rare event that the National Security Council, in the heat of a Situation Room crisis, reached complete accord. This was such an occasion, with one exception. The holdout was Jack Ryan.
He said, “I agree to a point. The canal has got to be the target.”
“But…” Mary Pat prompted.
The President’s head canted, as if searching for a different perspective. “Cui bono?” he asked. It was a Latin term that often arose in criminal prosecutions. Who benefits?
As was usually the case, Mary Pat’s thoughts aligned most quickly. “Malenkov is a given…but there has to be more. Nobody undertakes an attack of this magnitude to fuel an investment scheme.”
“At some level,” Ryan said, “this has got to be state sponsored. And the prime suspect is obvious.”
“Russia’s economy is hanging by a thread and sagging oil prices have been killing them.
Shutting down the canal, possibly for a decade or more—it would be a trillion-dollar flip on revenue.
Europe could be forced to turn back to Russia for crude oil and natural gas.
And with Arctic routes becoming more accessible, Russia’s influence on shipping would skyrocket.
There’s no way this wouldn’t help them.”
“Maybe the Russians duped us,” said Adler. “Maybe Malenkov is still heading SSD.”
Ryan said, “Or maybe he’s running a new division we don’t even know about. One that pushes instability to the next level.”
“All of what we’re suggesting is possible,” said Mary Pat. “But it’s also highly speculative. If this is some new GRU subsidiary that’s literally going nuclear, there’s no way we can prove it in the next hour. The important thing is to stop this attack.”
“Maybe we can do both,” the President said. He lasered in on Burgess. “I’d like to know if the Russians have any navy ships in this area.”
The question stilled the room.
“The eastern Med?” Burgess asked. “Why would that matter?”
“Humor me.”